Friday, January 14, 2011

India VIX heading for Breakout ??




In this daily NIFTY FUT chart with VIX, as we know there is inverse relationship.Vix is near top of range (24 Sept 2010-high 24.68).Looking at chart and trying to get possible  move based on VIX..from 24sept 10 NF made new lows and closed down for nearly 3 consecutive days , however VIX was moving down.But this time VIX is not showing any signs of coming down, so are we heading for VIX breakout- expect NF to go much down.Lets see if it gives BO or remains in Rectangle. Till then Observing  VIX will help.
NF closing below 5840-50 level for nearly 3days now ( except yesterday) ,does it indicate some more downside.Breakdown of 5700-10 level will lead to bigger fall.
As today we have inside day n lower volumes as compared to yesterday, so lets see what market has in mind ..either breakdown or reversal ??
On Options Open interest front Calls adding Hugh OI
5700 CE = 28%
5800 CE = 33%
and 5800 PE = - 7%
       5900 PE = - 13%, & 5700 = 9% ( OI added )
So 5700 Level needs to hold for any upside, else markets heading for big fall.




 

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